Wednesday 1 October 2008

Another lesson learned

Here I am, sitting in my pajamas reading (and typing) the FT and thinking I've seen all this before in the financial markets and beginning to believe that these shocks and disjoints are just a feature of how monetary systems work. Quants seem to believe that markets behave predictably, they predicted that the probability of AIG defaulting was less than one in a thousand the year before it, technically, did. What can be learned from this?

Unregulated markets, given enough "rope" will hang themselves. Free market competition dictates the one holding the ticking bomb whilst getting paid and successfully passing it to the next guy is "the winner". Its time we understood the bombs and ensure that one of the passees understand what they are being handed from the passors (or should I say stuffees and stuffors?)

Transparency is the key and this blog is a melting pot of ideas, some ridiculous, some sensible and some plainly wacky - feel free to contribute and I'll pass all sensible suggestions to Hank, over there in Wall St!

Ta ta for now